What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear. Professor Michael Starbird Ph.D. 12 video lectures | 30 minutes per lecture. Life is full of probabilities. Every time you choose something to eat, you deal with probable effects on your health. Every time you drive your car, probability gives a small but measurable chance that you will have an accident. Every time you buy a stock, play poker, or make plans based on a weather forecast, you are consigning your fate to probability. What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear helps you understand the random factors that lurk behind almost everythingfrom the chance combinations of genes that produced you to the high odds that the waiting time at a bus stop will be longer than the average time between buses if they operate on a random schedule. In 12 stimulating half-hour lectures, you will explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability. The course literally begins with a roll of the dice, as Professor Starbird demonstrates that games of chance perfectly illustrate the basic principles of probability, including the importance of counting all possible outcomes of any random event. In Lecture 2, you probe the nature of randomness, which is famously symbolized by monkeys randomly hitting typewriter keys and creating Hamlet. In Lecture 3, you explore the concept of expected value, which is the average net loss or gain from performing an experiment or playing a game many times. Then in Lecture 4, you investigate the simple but mathematically fertile idea of the random walk, which may seem like a mindless way of going nowhere but which has important applications in many fields. After this introduction to the key concepts of probability, you delve into the wealth of applications. Lectures 5 and 6 show that randomness and probability are central components of modern scientific descriptions of the world in physics and biology. Lecture 7 looks into the world of finance, particularly probabilistic models of stock and option behavior. Lecture 8 examines unusual applications, including game theory, which is the study of strategic decision-making in games, wars, business, and other areas. Then in Lecture 9 you consider two famous probability puzzles guaranteed to cause a stir: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal Monty Hall question. Finally, Lectures 1012 cover increasingly sophisticated and surprising results of probabilistic reasoning associated with Bayes theorem. The course concludes with probability paradoxes.